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Commercial Credit Modeler – Portfolio Analysis & Credit Loss Mgmt
Our suite of programs provides a commercial credit risk mgmt solution that is completely unique to Treasury, Credit and Collections. We enable you to organize you’re A/R portfolio into classes of businesses where you can visualize the risk associated with those businesses, and then make informed credit decisions.
When you see where risk lies in your portfolio, you are then able to make proactive credit policy decisions. This is what true risk mgmt is all about, and it is vastly superior to the time intensive practice of chasing delinquencies, after the problems have manifested.
Loss mitigation, improved collections, bank and CECL compliance, all based on default probabilities data and actionable intelligence. And your credit personnel will finally have the tools necessary to significantly reduce losses.
CECL Credit Programs
Free CCM Index
CCM Default Probabilities Program
CECL Resources
Understanding CECL
6 steps to CECL
Commercial Credit Model User Guide and FAQ
Questions? Contact Support
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Questions? Contact Support
Commercial Credit Model User Guide and FAQ
Credit Risk Mgmt begins with Default Probability Data
Our default probability models are based on the actual default rates of 'similarly situated businesses'. This graph shows the default rates of businesses with fewer than 500 employees, by industry sector. The values shown from 2012 through 2023 are actuals. The 2024 values are estimates derived from our CCM. Click on industry sectors below to obtain a clear view of credit risk by sector.
2019 was the last normal year (pre-pandemic). Therefore, we use it as a reference point for you to compare current and projected defaults.
| Industry | 2019 Default Rate | Latest Default Rate |
|---|---|---|
| All Industries | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| Construction | 2.8% | 3% |
| Education | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| Finance | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| Information | 2.9% | 3.9% |
| Leisure and Hospitality | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| Manufacturing | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Natural Resources | 2% | 1.9% |
| Professional Services | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Retail Trade | 3% | 3.1% |
| Transportation | 2.6% | 3.6% |
| Wholesale Trade | 2% | 2.2% |